Conferences CIMPA, 8th Latin American Conference on Statistical Computing (LACSC)

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Analysis of Intoxication Cases Reported in Costa Rica from 2020 to 2022: Before and during the COVID-19 Period.
Edgardo Gutierrez-Vega, Shu Wei Chou-Chen, Marietta Somarribas-Blanco

Last modified: 2024-05-14

Abstract


The pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 and the health restrictions led to drastic changes in the lifestyles and habits of the population. The main goal of this work is to determine significant changes during the COVID-19 period (2020 to 2022) compared to previous years (2015 to 2019), by using reports received by the National Intoxication Control Center of Costa Rica. First, a hierarchical clustering analysis using Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) was performed to identify relevant time series based on sex and age groups for each intoxication cause. Then, we focused on these time series for each intoxication cause and analyzed if they suffered changes when the pandemic started. A forecasting approach using ARIMA with intervention and Prophet models was used to determine unexpected behavior after the start of the pandemic. The results showed  that children 0 to 4 years old were mainly affected by accidental intoxications, with a decreasing trend during the pandemic.Regarding attempted suicide with medication, two main groups were analyzed: women aged 12 to 19 years old and adults aged 20 to 59 years old, both showing an increase in cases.  Reports of addiction with drugs of abuse were analyzed for individuals aged 12 to 19 years old and those over 20 years old, with only the latter showing an increase. For reactions to medications, individuals under 15 years of age presented a decrease in cases in 2020 and 2021, while those 15 years of age or older reported an increase in the same period. Occupational intoxications with pesticides were within expected.


Keywords


SARS-CoV-2, forecasting, suicide attempt, drug addiction